http://rapidshare.com/files/149267202/NIFTY_TRENDS.pdf.html
please download newsletter by COPYING LINK AND PASTING IN BROWSER
REGARDS
NIFTYTREND TEAM
Monday, September 29, 2008
Sunday, September 28, 2008
World financial crisis and its impact-A.K.Prabhakar ANANDRATHI
Are bad times here to stay in 2008?
3more months to end the year and Global financial crisis seeing no end we have September 30, Tuesday, which is the deadline for hedge fund investors to put in requests to get their money back by year's end 90day notice period. The redemption requests have been pouring into hedge funds well ahead of the Sept. 30 deadline. More pressure can be seen in the last few days, hedge funds, control nearly $2 trillion in assets and indication are that 10% of withdrawal can be seen.
http://www.businessweek.com/investing/insights/blog/archives/2008/09/look_out_for_bl.html?campaign_id=rss_null Look Out for Bloody Tuesday
Will the $700billion package save the crisis?
This can be a temporary relief and never a permanent solution many times I get a feeling if U.S has turned into socialist and using good money to buy bad asset to save mismanaged corporate, instead of allowing them to die natural death. I have attached a file which says 1,479 FDIC member banks are at risk of failure with total assets of $2.4 trillion. So we are no way near to solution.
Who next? Wachovia, the sixth-largest U.S. bank by assets, hunts for a merger partner – reports. The bank suffered a record $9.11 billion loss in the second quarter.
Will India face the same problem?
India has a better system of banking and with majority of banks being PSU where Govt hold more than 50% stake we don't have a problem. India is a better regulated market in terms of Banking and NBFC as RBI norms are strict and regular monitoring and stricter NPA norms are followed, recently also RBI warned KOTAKBANK to reduce equity market exposure as it exceeded the limits prescribed.
Special mention:
Ex-RBI Governor Y.V.Reddy was very smart enough to check asset bubble by hiking interest rate and reducing liquidity into the system and it did effect growth but he was strong to say I would compromise growth to control inflation. And warned Govt that real crude prices were not reflected in inflation so first correct that in response to FM statement to cut interest rate. When Fed was cutting rates he stood his way with higher rate and tighter liquidity.
Recap: Market summary for April 7th 2008-A.K.Prabhakar (for use of ANANDRATHI)
Market always discounts bad & good news at faster pace maybe a layman can be laggard, Inflation worry was there for almost 1years and RBI governor refused to bow down to political pressure to cut interest rate when FM wanted to reduce interest rate to improve growth, the same man (FM) now says we compromise growth for inflation. And the mess which has been created by political bosses for there whims and fancy has impacted us now. Good thing about political stupidity is they can't face midterm election now and hard fight over inflation will happen. The art of living lies not in eliminating but in growing with troubles, growth doesn't come without inflation but we need some visionary moves to control inflation and stimulate growth at the same time. If someone were to watch the moves of China they are accumulating oil wealth for long time and the reforms are faster and timely compared with any countries in the world. As Sitaram Yechury pointed out after visiting china, China is putting there hand on left and turning (doing everything) Right'.
Remember: The bigger the boom generated by manipulation of money and credit, the bigger the ultimate bust.
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2008/09/27/economy-in-trouble-no-matter-bailout-outcome
Opinion: Bad times never last, but time is the best cure for any problem maybe by February or March 2009 market can show a bottom and enter a consolidated phase before an up move and I doubt a new high for next 3years but come 2009 good time for stock market starts and wise investment would give best returns.
We in ANANDRATHI help you to become successful investors (Behind every successful investor) ----A.K.Prabhakar
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc
The 158-year-old firm was founded by brothers Henry, Emanuel and Mayer Lehman, Jewish immigrants to the US from Germany, in 1850. Henry set up a general store in Alabama in 1844 and was later joined by his brothers. In 1850 they set up the merchant bank in New York after having made money in railway bonds. Lehman Bros, which till June 2008 had not reported a quarterly loss even once, had earlier survived many an economic crises, like railroad bankruptcies of the 1900s, the Great Depression in the 1930s, and the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management in the 1990s.
--
A.K.Prabhakar
3more months to end the year and Global financial crisis seeing no end we have September 30, Tuesday, which is the deadline for hedge fund investors to put in requests to get their money back by year's end 90day notice period. The redemption requests have been pouring into hedge funds well ahead of the Sept. 30 deadline. More pressure can be seen in the last few days, hedge funds, control nearly $2 trillion in assets and indication are that 10% of withdrawal can be seen.
http://www.businessweek.com/investing/insights/blog/archives/2008/09/look_out_for_bl.html?campaign_id=rss_null Look Out for Bloody Tuesday
Will the $700billion package save the crisis?
This can be a temporary relief and never a permanent solution many times I get a feeling if U.S has turned into socialist and using good money to buy bad asset to save mismanaged corporate, instead of allowing them to die natural death. I have attached a file which says 1,479 FDIC member banks are at risk of failure with total assets of $2.4 trillion. So we are no way near to solution.
Who next? Wachovia, the sixth-largest U.S. bank by assets, hunts for a merger partner – reports. The bank suffered a record $9.11 billion loss in the second quarter.
Will India face the same problem?
India has a better system of banking and with majority of banks being PSU where Govt hold more than 50% stake we don't have a problem. India is a better regulated market in terms of Banking and NBFC as RBI norms are strict and regular monitoring and stricter NPA norms are followed, recently also RBI warned KOTAKBANK to reduce equity market exposure as it exceeded the limits prescribed.
Special mention:
Ex-RBI Governor Y.V.Reddy was very smart enough to check asset bubble by hiking interest rate and reducing liquidity into the system and it did effect growth but he was strong to say I would compromise growth to control inflation. And warned Govt that real crude prices were not reflected in inflation so first correct that in response to FM statement to cut interest rate. When Fed was cutting rates he stood his way with higher rate and tighter liquidity.
Recap: Market summary for April 7th 2008-A.K.Prabhakar (for use of ANANDRATHI)
Market always discounts bad & good news at faster pace maybe a layman can be laggard, Inflation worry was there for almost 1years and RBI governor refused to bow down to political pressure to cut interest rate when FM wanted to reduce interest rate to improve growth, the same man (FM) now says we compromise growth for inflation. And the mess which has been created by political bosses for there whims and fancy has impacted us now. Good thing about political stupidity is they can't face midterm election now and hard fight over inflation will happen. The art of living lies not in eliminating but in growing with troubles, growth doesn't come without inflation but we need some visionary moves to control inflation and stimulate growth at the same time. If someone were to watch the moves of China they are accumulating oil wealth for long time and the reforms are faster and timely compared with any countries in the world. As Sitaram Yechury pointed out after visiting china, China is putting there hand on left and turning (doing everything) Right'.
Remember: The bigger the boom generated by manipulation of money and credit, the bigger the ultimate bust.
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2008/09/27/economy-in-trouble-no-matter-bailout-outcome
Opinion: Bad times never last, but time is the best cure for any problem maybe by February or March 2009 market can show a bottom and enter a consolidated phase before an up move and I doubt a new high for next 3years but come 2009 good time for stock market starts and wise investment would give best returns.
We in ANANDRATHI help you to become successful investors (Behind every successful investor) ----A.K.Prabhakar
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc
The 158-year-old firm was founded by brothers Henry, Emanuel and Mayer Lehman, Jewish immigrants to the US from Germany, in 1850. Henry set up a general store in Alabama in 1844 and was later joined by his brothers. In 1850 they set up the merchant bank in New York after having made money in railway bonds. Lehman Bros, which till June 2008 had not reported a quarterly loss even once, had earlier survived many an economic crises, like railroad bankruptcies of the 1900s, the Great Depression in the 1930s, and the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management in the 1990s.
--
A.K.Prabhakar
Avoid Spreading Rumours!!
Read this article,
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080928/as_hong_kong_bank_rumors_arrest.html
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080928/as_hong_kong_bank_rumors_arrest.html
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
NIFTY VIEW 24TH SEPT
EXPIRY NEAR !!! NUCLEAR DEAL PRESENTED BEFORE CONGRESS !!! US BAIL OUT PLANS COMES FOR DISCUSSION!!! NEXT WHERE ARE WE HEADING ???
No change in view as shown in charts earlier .Market resisting from breakout from upper side as many news are awaited to be factored .Yesterday nifty closed at support and also daddy of market RIL . If u are bull use dips to buy with strict sl of 4040.
If u are bear don't try to short market here wait for rise .
NIFTY SUPPORTS:: 4095 4040 3980.
NIFTY RESISTANCE ::4183, 4245 4305
STOCKS TO WATCH :: NTPC ,RIL
INVESTORS can add NTPC at every fall with sl 167 for target of 192 204 220.
RIL dips can be bought for trading with sl of 1940.
HAVE A GREAT TRADING DAY AHEAD
REGARDS
NIFTYTRENDS TEAM
No change in view as shown in charts earlier .Market resisting from breakout from upper side as many news are awaited to be factored .Yesterday nifty closed at support and also daddy of market RIL . If u are bull use dips to buy with strict sl of 4040.
If u are bear don't try to short market here wait for rise .
NIFTY SUPPORTS:: 4095 4040 3980.
NIFTY RESISTANCE ::4183, 4245 4305
STOCKS TO WATCH :: NTPC ,RIL
INVESTORS can add NTPC at every fall with sl 167 for target of 192 204 220.
RIL dips can be bought for trading with sl of 1940.
HAVE A GREAT TRADING DAY AHEAD
REGARDS
NIFTYTRENDS TEAM
Ranbaxy 23-sep 2008
This is a weekly chart of Ranbaxy. As can be seen from chart, it had shown a low of 300 in the previous fall. The stock has been in news lately(negative for the stock). The stock is now coming to oversold regions but I would personally avoid the stock and watch if it is making a bottom formation before entering.
USD INR - A study
This is an attempt to study the USD-INR chart. As can be seen from chart, it made a high last week near to 47 Rs to a dollar. From there it has fallen to around 45 levels. The chart indicates that the support exists around 44 to 44.5 levels. As from chart some of the indicators were showing bearish divergences before the fall.
Monday, September 22, 2008
Nifty hourly chart as on 22 sept 2008
This is a hourly Nifty futures chart. Today everybody expected a gap up but Market has its own mind. Nifty fut could not sustain at higher levels. As told earlier from EOD charts it didnot cross 4300 in futures.If you observe the chart there is a gap in NF between 4100 to 4140 levels. Will Nifty go down to fill that gap?? As of now the supports are 4182 and 4100 levels.
WEEKLY NEWSLETTER 22.09
http://rapidshare.com/files/147306404/newletter_weekly_22.09.pdf.html
REGARDS
NIFTYTREDS TEAM
REGARDS
NIFTYTREDS TEAM
Thursday, September 18, 2008
Nifty 18th september 2008
Today was a truely roller Coaster day!! All were expecting Lower circuit but as told early Nifty took support near 3800 and after that there was huge short covering. Market by close was in positive, a swing of 300 points in Nifty. Volumes in Nifty futures was more than 5 crores which is seen after many days.
Now outlook from here. As can be seen from chart, Nifty has touched the 34 EMA which i call the magnet, Price cannot remain far away from it for long!! From the retracement levels we see that Nifty can go near 4200 and then 4300. Chance is there of it again testing 3800. Inflation has again moved up which is a major concern as of now.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
ICICI Bank- Reasons for fall
This is a daily chart of ICICI. As can be seen from the vols, massive trading happened. There was rumour of ICICI having problems. Also heard was Lehman selling its holdings in the bank.
Let us see by Technical Analysis. Two days back there was a Head and shoulder pattern and volumes were increasing. So the insiders knew about Lehman troubles and had started selling. As soon as the neckline broke, it fell.
WHAT NOW- We feel that ICICI Bank is a good bet from hereon. One can buy around 500for a reasonable upside. Ofcourse, this is for the longer term. Seeing market conditions is advised before entering this stock.
Nifty outlook 17th Sep 2008
Fed does not cut Interest rates. AIG bailed out by FED and takes a stake in the company. Our Nifty outlook remains the same. 3800 can still come in Nifty. 4200 is the resistance.
Monday, September 15, 2008
Nifty Daily chart as on 16th September
This is daily chart of Nifty. Here we can see that there was breakdown from neckline from the famous Head and shoulder pattern. we can see 3800 levels in Nifty.
Sunday, September 14, 2008
Nifty outlook for 15th september 2008
We have uploaded the outlook for the coming week in rapidshares. Kindly download it from the link given below.
http://rapidshare.com/files/145252122/NEWS_LETTER_15.09.2009.pdf.html
http://rapidshare.com/files/145252122/NEWS_LETTER_15.09.2009.pdf.html
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)