WE FEEL THAT THIS IS SHORT TERM RETRACEMENT WHICH WAS DUE TO COME AFTER NEARLY 500 POINTS RALLY IN NIFTY .
REGARDS
NIFTY TREND TEAM
Sunday, December 28, 2008
NIFTY SHORT TERM OUTLOOK
WE FEEL THAT THIS IS SHORT TERM RETRACEMENT WHICH WAS DUE TO COME AFTER NEARLY 500 POINTS RALLY IN NIFTY .
REGARDS
NIFTY TREND TEAM
Thursday, December 25, 2008
Market Outlook for the year 2009- Contrarian view-A.K.Prabhakar
Market Outlook for the year 2009- Contrarian view-A.K.Prabhakar
2009 would be more range bound with many rallies fizzling out at higher level 13,000-14,000, Range for market would be 9000-14,000 and I would call this a year of accumulation, 2009 Year end target to be around 14,000 levels.
Year 2008 Sensex has corrected from high of 21206(January2008) to 7697(October2008) and in the 12month we have seen big erosion in value.
Indian Index has higher weightage for Crude S&P CNX Nifty has 22.4% ( Reliance+RPL+Cairn+ONGC) just 4stock in total 50 stock dominate Nifty while in Sensex 2stock hold 18.64% ( Reliance+ONGC) http://epaper.business-standard.com/bsepaper/svww_showarticle.php?art=20081225b_005101001
Negative for market in 2009:
* Earning downgrade in the next 2-3quater
* Election year, first 5month will be like a caretaker Govt with no fresh proposal and Budget will be placed by new Govt in power.
* Stability and ability of the new Govt cant judged at this point of time.
* Fiscal deficit has almost reached 5% of GDP and with election year more sops can be anticipated.
* Indo-Pak relationship hits new low after terror attack possibility of war has emerged.
* Terror attack in Mumbai has put break on new investment plan. And many new entrants are planning to have there office in south (Bangalore, Hyderabad or Chennai).
* Index components like RPower, Suzlon, JP Assoc, Unitech, RPL have crashed between 75 to 90% from their peak. Many of these companies have not completed even 5 years on the bourses, and so it gives a feeling of hasty index selection process for Nifty.
Positive for market in 2009:
* Sensex trading near 8.8 forward earning and lowest point from 2001.
* Falling commodity prices will ease pressure on user industry and another price cut in petroleum products anticipated which could push prices down.
* Govt stimulus would boost the economy after 3-4month and slow recovery is anticipated.
* Higher base effect of inflation will keep inflation low and more rates cut and easing of monetary policy possible.
* Lower crude prices have made Bio-fuel costly pushing down prices of wheat and corn in U.S increasing supply of food product.
* India is still 2nd fastest growing economy.
* Fiscal deficit to be controlled by disinvestment or strategic sale by new Govt which will be in place before June2009.
October month saw highest fall in index- Hedge funds allows there investor to withdraw money once a year and they can apply by September 30 seeing heavy demand of redemption in 2008 September, heavy selling was seen and Indian market low was marked, November has been relatively quite and December has seen buying from FIIs and SEBI data is provided below.
Many ask if new low is possible.
I ask where will be markets after 2-3years if you answer 16000-18000 then you should be invested 40-50% at these levels. Today 25/Dec/2008 Sensex is 9568 and majority fear Sensex can touch level below 7,000 creating new low, I run a risk 2,500 points and I would be able to average as I hold cash 50-60%.
Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing - Warren Buffet
But now we know the risk of buying and can invest.
What if Sensex doesn't go below 9,000?
We would miss opportunity and maybe buy at higher level. And with FIIs turning buyers in December 2008 till date and fresh allocation in January 2009 can change equation. Many said.
Quote: In Stock market there is never clarity, Media or someone won't tell you this is the best time to buy, and at peak market looks attractive at bottom market looks to panic always take informed decision.
Ratios are past; market always like to discount future.
Contrarian view:
Where do you see the Sensex after 3-4 years?
Sensex can possibly target 22,000 around levels by 2012 January 3years from now, when we talked about Sensex reaching 9700-10500 by March2009 it looked odd as we did say as early as November 2007 and latter cautioned from January 2008 time when Sensex touched 21206.
Do you see a possibility of Sensex making a newer low?
Predicting market exactly is never possible but now risk to reward ratio is favorable for a long term investor. Bull markets are normally born on excess pessimism, Bull markets had created excess and now all excesses have been shed. More of range bound market ranging from 9000-14000 is my outlook.
What makes you feel FIIs investment will flow back into India?
Globally interest rates are nearing zero making high risky assets like equity attractive and with weaker rupee can attract more investment. India being 2nd fastest growing economy and has better regulated markets compared to many other emerging market and market quoting at relatively discounted valuation 8.8times forward earning makes me positive.
What if foreign investment doesn't come?
Indian saving rate is above 30% one of the highest in the globe and pending reforms like pension, insurance and banking would improve which can make local money getting invested in Indian equity market in a better way compensating foreign inflow.
What would be the change when new Government gets formed?
Many pending bills will be passed Insurance, Banking, pension and allowing private sector into nuclear energy also can happen. Disinvestment of many PSU like NTPC, BHEL, BEL and many more can happen, and total sale of few companies like Maruti & TATACOMM can also happen as Govt need funds to bridge the fiscal deficit.
FII Data for 2008
Jan-08
-13035.7
Feb-08
1733.3
Mar-08
-130.4
Apr-08
1074.8
May-08
-5011.5
Jun-08
-10095.8
Jul-08
-1836.8
Aug-08
-1211.7
Sep-08
-8278.1
Oct-08
-15347.3
Nov-08
-2598.3
Dec-08
2013.8
Total 2008
-52723.7
Source :- SEBI website
Major Points:
* Indian Elections are due in Q2 CY09 and markets will be happy whichever of Congress (the ruling party) or the BJP (the current opposition) forms the next coalition government. Further, increased earnings visibility, with benign interest and inflation rates will result in a PE revision offsetting any fiscal deficit concerns.
* Asset allocations' country allocation decisions to be driven by two factors i) relative underlying growth and strength of the domestic economy, ii) Size and liquidity of the market. India and China, both large markets with buoyant and strong domestic underlying growth, will be big beneficiaries. So good FDI and FII flows into the Chinese and Indian economy Q2 CY09 onwards.
* Japan Inflow to come in a major way to India in coming years already data has been send and discussed few months back.
BHEL, BEL, SAIL, BEML, OBC, SBIN, NTPC, SCI, CORP.BANK=PSU
SIEMENS, ABB, APIL, BATAINDIA, CUMMINSINDIA=MNC
BGRENERGY, TATAPOWER=Power
RCOM & IDEA=Telecom
ICICIBANK, SOUTHINDIABANK= Private Bank
INFOSYS, TCS, ROLTA=TECH
IVRCL, LT, PUNJLLYOD, HCC=Infrastructure
RPL, TATASTEEL, RANBAXY, EXIDE, MAH&MAH, MARUTI, DABUR, THERMAX, SINTEX, TATATEA, TITAN, IDFC and RELIANCE ---- NEW YEAR2009 picks
Recap of what was said in 2008/January
The below given views is of my own (A.K.Prabhakar of ANANDRATHI) it doesn't reflect companies view. U.S markets has had its impact on global markets from 1980's so based on that the below given text is prepared-Published on 7/January/2008
Global market Special view: Dow has broken 13000 levels and 75week moving average which comes around 12700 is the support in many ways (Low in previous rally) and as per Dow Theory U.S market is entering bear phase. And talk of recession hitting U.S is getting bigger and Fed cutting interest rate also won't help as inflationary pressure has to be also addressed with Crude around $98.
How will India be affected by this development?
Already Indian exports are affected by rising Rupee and any slowdown in U.S will impact our Tech & Textile sector which is highest employer in India. New generation employees have created credit beyond 4-5yrs and if no salary hike is given, it will affect them very badly. (Salary cut or unemployment would be disaster)
What impact will this have in our stocks market?
In 2007 India got 71000crs from foreign funds and if Global markets reacts then all emerging markets funds would go into safer investment like debt and gold. And with Reliance Power issue which can suck minimum of 12000crs in liquidity, if fresh flows are hard to come we can see intermediate correction.
Do we see any slowdown in investment from FIIs?
As per data available in NSE & BSE website funds which has come into secondary markets is negative from November till date and there is no signs yet that new funds from western world would come in. Major correction in U.S market would make global investor withdraw money from emerging markets.
Is Indian markets attractive in short term?
Indian growth story is very strong but any recession globally will affect us also as high crude is benefiting Indian growth in big way as Indian employment, exports and investment come from gulf region in major way (Engineering, construction & raw material). And our stocks markets have fully priced in future growth, but still many attractive pockets remain liquidity is always very important.
What will be long term impact?
World Recession can bring slowdown in India at the maximum, but Indian growth story is a long term one which is here to stay. As India is putting infrastructure in place things would move in India favor any correction would be chance to buy for long term investor while short term is always very difficult to predict.
What can derail India's growth?
Politics and bureaucracy should speed up reform process. India is the powerful trends of demography and urbanization: half the population is under 25 years old and 70% still live in the countryside. India needs to strengthen its infrastructure (hard and soft), reduce its stifling bureaucracy, deregulate its labour market and further develop its financial system. If it does, these two trends can help lift the economy's potential growth rate to 10%. But without reforms, these trends can become a major liability, possibly reducing potential growth to 5-6%.
This is prepared By A.K.Prabhakar of ANANDRATHI and the view expressed is of his own and it doesn't reflect Company view
2009 would be more range bound with many rallies fizzling out at higher level 13,000-14,000, Range for market would be 9000-14,000 and I would call this a year of accumulation, 2009 Year end target to be around 14,000 levels.
Year 2008 Sensex has corrected from high of 21206(January2008) to 7697(October2008) and in the 12month we have seen big erosion in value.
Indian Index has higher weightage for Crude S&P CNX Nifty has 22.4% ( Reliance+RPL+Cairn+ONGC) just 4stock in total 50 stock dominate Nifty while in Sensex 2stock hold 18.64% ( Reliance+ONGC) http://epaper.business-standard.com/bsepaper/svww_showarticle.php?art=20081225b_005101001
Negative for market in 2009:
* Earning downgrade in the next 2-3quater
* Election year, first 5month will be like a caretaker Govt with no fresh proposal and Budget will be placed by new Govt in power.
* Stability and ability of the new Govt cant judged at this point of time.
* Fiscal deficit has almost reached 5% of GDP and with election year more sops can be anticipated.
* Indo-Pak relationship hits new low after terror attack possibility of war has emerged.
* Terror attack in Mumbai has put break on new investment plan. And many new entrants are planning to have there office in south (Bangalore, Hyderabad or Chennai).
* Index components like RPower, Suzlon, JP Assoc, Unitech, RPL have crashed between 75 to 90% from their peak. Many of these companies have not completed even 5 years on the bourses, and so it gives a feeling of hasty index selection process for Nifty.
Positive for market in 2009:
* Sensex trading near 8.8 forward earning and lowest point from 2001.
* Falling commodity prices will ease pressure on user industry and another price cut in petroleum products anticipated which could push prices down.
* Govt stimulus would boost the economy after 3-4month and slow recovery is anticipated.
* Higher base effect of inflation will keep inflation low and more rates cut and easing of monetary policy possible.
* Lower crude prices have made Bio-fuel costly pushing down prices of wheat and corn in U.S increasing supply of food product.
* India is still 2nd fastest growing economy.
* Fiscal deficit to be controlled by disinvestment or strategic sale by new Govt which will be in place before June2009.
October month saw highest fall in index- Hedge funds allows there investor to withdraw money once a year and they can apply by September 30 seeing heavy demand of redemption in 2008 September, heavy selling was seen and Indian market low was marked, November has been relatively quite and December has seen buying from FIIs and SEBI data is provided below.
Many ask if new low is possible.
I ask where will be markets after 2-3years if you answer 16000-18000 then you should be invested 40-50% at these levels. Today 25/Dec/2008 Sensex is 9568 and majority fear Sensex can touch level below 7,000 creating new low, I run a risk 2,500 points and I would be able to average as I hold cash 50-60%.
Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing - Warren Buffet
But now we know the risk of buying and can invest.
What if Sensex doesn't go below 9,000?
We would miss opportunity and maybe buy at higher level. And with FIIs turning buyers in December 2008 till date and fresh allocation in January 2009 can change equation. Many said.
Quote: In Stock market there is never clarity, Media or someone won't tell you this is the best time to buy, and at peak market looks attractive at bottom market looks to panic always take informed decision.
Ratios are past; market always like to discount future.
Contrarian view:
Where do you see the Sensex after 3-4 years?
Sensex can possibly target 22,000 around levels by 2012 January 3years from now, when we talked about Sensex reaching 9700-10500 by March2009 it looked odd as we did say as early as November 2007 and latter cautioned from January 2008 time when Sensex touched 21206.
Do you see a possibility of Sensex making a newer low?
Predicting market exactly is never possible but now risk to reward ratio is favorable for a long term investor. Bull markets are normally born on excess pessimism, Bull markets had created excess and now all excesses have been shed. More of range bound market ranging from 9000-14000 is my outlook.
What makes you feel FIIs investment will flow back into India?
Globally interest rates are nearing zero making high risky assets like equity attractive and with weaker rupee can attract more investment. India being 2nd fastest growing economy and has better regulated markets compared to many other emerging market and market quoting at relatively discounted valuation 8.8times forward earning makes me positive.
What if foreign investment doesn't come?
Indian saving rate is above 30% one of the highest in the globe and pending reforms like pension, insurance and banking would improve which can make local money getting invested in Indian equity market in a better way compensating foreign inflow.
What would be the change when new Government gets formed?
Many pending bills will be passed Insurance, Banking, pension and allowing private sector into nuclear energy also can happen. Disinvestment of many PSU like NTPC, BHEL, BEL and many more can happen, and total sale of few companies like Maruti & TATACOMM can also happen as Govt need funds to bridge the fiscal deficit.
FII Data for 2008
Jan-08
-13035.7
Feb-08
1733.3
Mar-08
-130.4
Apr-08
1074.8
May-08
-5011.5
Jun-08
-10095.8
Jul-08
-1836.8
Aug-08
-1211.7
Sep-08
-8278.1
Oct-08
-15347.3
Nov-08
-2598.3
Dec-08
2013.8
Total 2008
-52723.7
Source :- SEBI website
Major Points:
* Indian Elections are due in Q2 CY09 and markets will be happy whichever of Congress (the ruling party) or the BJP (the current opposition) forms the next coalition government. Further, increased earnings visibility, with benign interest and inflation rates will result in a PE revision offsetting any fiscal deficit concerns.
* Asset allocations' country allocation decisions to be driven by two factors i) relative underlying growth and strength of the domestic economy, ii) Size and liquidity of the market. India and China, both large markets with buoyant and strong domestic underlying growth, will be big beneficiaries. So good FDI and FII flows into the Chinese and Indian economy Q2 CY09 onwards.
* Japan Inflow to come in a major way to India in coming years already data has been send and discussed few months back.
BHEL, BEL, SAIL, BEML, OBC, SBIN, NTPC, SCI, CORP.BANK=PSU
SIEMENS, ABB, APIL, BATAINDIA, CUMMINSINDIA=MNC
BGRENERGY, TATAPOWER=Power
RCOM & IDEA=Telecom
ICICIBANK, SOUTHINDIABANK= Private Bank
INFOSYS, TCS, ROLTA=TECH
IVRCL, LT, PUNJLLYOD, HCC=Infrastructure
RPL, TATASTEEL, RANBAXY, EXIDE, MAH&MAH, MARUTI, DABUR, THERMAX, SINTEX, TATATEA, TITAN, IDFC and RELIANCE ---- NEW YEAR2009 picks
Recap of what was said in 2008/January
The below given views is of my own (A.K.Prabhakar of ANANDRATHI) it doesn't reflect companies view. U.S markets has had its impact on global markets from 1980's so based on that the below given text is prepared-Published on 7/January/2008
Global market Special view: Dow has broken 13000 levels and 75week moving average which comes around 12700 is the support in many ways (Low in previous rally) and as per Dow Theory U.S market is entering bear phase. And talk of recession hitting U.S is getting bigger and Fed cutting interest rate also won't help as inflationary pressure has to be also addressed with Crude around $98.
How will India be affected by this development?
Already Indian exports are affected by rising Rupee and any slowdown in U.S will impact our Tech & Textile sector which is highest employer in India. New generation employees have created credit beyond 4-5yrs and if no salary hike is given, it will affect them very badly. (Salary cut or unemployment would be disaster)
What impact will this have in our stocks market?
In 2007 India got 71000crs from foreign funds and if Global markets reacts then all emerging markets funds would go into safer investment like debt and gold. And with Reliance Power issue which can suck minimum of 12000crs in liquidity, if fresh flows are hard to come we can see intermediate correction.
Do we see any slowdown in investment from FIIs?
As per data available in NSE & BSE website funds which has come into secondary markets is negative from November till date and there is no signs yet that new funds from western world would come in. Major correction in U.S market would make global investor withdraw money from emerging markets.
Is Indian markets attractive in short term?
Indian growth story is very strong but any recession globally will affect us also as high crude is benefiting Indian growth in big way as Indian employment, exports and investment come from gulf region in major way (Engineering, construction & raw material). And our stocks markets have fully priced in future growth, but still many attractive pockets remain liquidity is always very important.
What will be long term impact?
World Recession can bring slowdown in India at the maximum, but Indian growth story is a long term one which is here to stay. As India is putting infrastructure in place things would move in India favor any correction would be chance to buy for long term investor while short term is always very difficult to predict.
What can derail India's growth?
Politics and bureaucracy should speed up reform process. India is the powerful trends of demography and urbanization: half the population is under 25 years old and 70% still live in the countryside. India needs to strengthen its infrastructure (hard and soft), reduce its stifling bureaucracy, deregulate its labour market and further develop its financial system. If it does, these two trends can help lift the economy's potential growth rate to 10%. But without reforms, these trends can become a major liability, possibly reducing potential growth to 5-6%.
This is prepared By A.K.Prabhakar of ANANDRATHI and the view expressed is of his own and it doesn't reflect Company view
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Sunday, December 7, 2008
Will This Stimulus Plan be enough ?
The RBI measures to spur economic growth:
* Repo-rate cut by 1% from 7.5% to 6.5%
* Reverse Repo rate cut by 1% from 6% to 5%
* Reverse Repo rate cut for the first time since 2003
* CRR, SLR kept unchanged at 5.5% and 24%, respectively
* Housing loans up to Rs 20 lakh to be put under priority sector lending by banks providing credit to HFCs
* Refinance for up to Rs 7,000 crore to SIDBI for the employment intensive micro and small enterprises
* Refinance for Rs 4,000 crore for the National Housing Bank under consideration
* Concessional finance may be allowed for up to 180 days for overdue bills of exporters
* Companies may be allowed to buy back FCCBs prematurely
These measures intended to step up demand and arrest growth moderation. – PTI
The government today announced major tax cuts across the board to boost demand and allocated additional funds and incentives for exports, housing, textile and infrastructure to stimulate the economy, hit by the global financial crisis.
"The government has been concerned about the impact of global financial crisis on the Indian economy and a number of steps have been taken to deal with this problem," an official statement said.
The package, coming on the back of fresh monetary measures announced by the Reserve Bank of India yesterday, includes a four per cent cut in ad-valoram duty across the board, to boost additional spending, besides enhanced credit for exporters, along with a Rs 10,000 crore mop up for India Infrastructure Finance Company.
"In order to provide a contra-cyclical stimulus via plan expenditure, the government has decided to seek authorisation for additional plan expenditure of up to Rs 20,000 crore in the current year," the statement said, adding the total spending programme in the four months ending March was expected to be Rs 3,00,000 crore.
As part of efforts to boost the housing sector, the public sector banks would shortly announce a package for home loan borrowers in two categories -- up to Rs 5 lakh and between Rs 5-20 lakh, the statement said, adding that additional measures would be taken, as necessary, to promote an accelerated growth trajectory.
As a special gesture for the automobile sector, government departments would be allowed to take up replacement of vehicles within the allowed budget.
Attaching special significance to infrastructure development, the government authorised India Infrastructure Finance Co (IIFCL) to raise Rs 10,000 crore through tax- free bonds by March 2009 and said it would be permitted to raise further resources.
"In particular, these initiatives would support a PPP (Public-Private Partnership) programme of Rs 1,00,000 crore in the highways sector," it said.
Paying special attention to exports, the government decided to provide an interest subvention of two per cent up to March 2009 for pre and post-shipment export credit for labour-intensive exports like textiles, leather, marine products and SME sector. The concession is subject to a minimum rate of interest of seven per cent per annum.
Besides, it would provide an additional Rs 1,100 crore for full refund of terminal excise duty/CST and another Rs 350 crore for export incentive schemes and a back-up guarantee of Rs 350 crore to ECGC (Export Credit Guarantee Corporation) for providing guarantee for exports to difficult markets and products.
To boost collateral free lending to micro and small enterprises that are facing a credit crunch, the government doubled the current guarantee cover for loans to up to Rs 1 crore from the existing limit of Rs 50 lakh.
Besides, the lock in period for loans covered under the existing credit guarantee scheme will be reduced from 24 to 18 months, to encourage banks to cover more loans under the guarantee scheme.
These announcements for the MSE sector comes a day after RBI announced a refinance facility of Rs 7,000 crore for Small Industries Development Bank of India to facilitate the flow of credit to such industries.
As part of the stimulus package, textile sector, the largest provider of employment, would get an additional Rs 1,400 crore towards the entire backlog of Technology Upgradation Fund.
The statement also said that all items of handicrafts will be included under Vishesh Krishi and Gram Udyog Yojana.
Among other initiatives, the government has decided to completely lift import duty on Naphtha for use in the power sector while export duty on iron ore fines will be eliminated.
* Repo-rate cut by 1% from 7.5% to 6.5%
* Reverse Repo rate cut by 1% from 6% to 5%
* Reverse Repo rate cut for the first time since 2003
* CRR, SLR kept unchanged at 5.5% and 24%, respectively
* Housing loans up to Rs 20 lakh to be put under priority sector lending by banks providing credit to HFCs
* Refinance for up to Rs 7,000 crore to SIDBI for the employment intensive micro and small enterprises
* Refinance for Rs 4,000 crore for the National Housing Bank under consideration
* Concessional finance may be allowed for up to 180 days for overdue bills of exporters
* Companies may be allowed to buy back FCCBs prematurely
These measures intended to step up demand and arrest growth moderation. – PTI
The government today announced major tax cuts across the board to boost demand and allocated additional funds and incentives for exports, housing, textile and infrastructure to stimulate the economy, hit by the global financial crisis.
"The government has been concerned about the impact of global financial crisis on the Indian economy and a number of steps have been taken to deal with this problem," an official statement said.
The package, coming on the back of fresh monetary measures announced by the Reserve Bank of India yesterday, includes a four per cent cut in ad-valoram duty across the board, to boost additional spending, besides enhanced credit for exporters, along with a Rs 10,000 crore mop up for India Infrastructure Finance Company.
"In order to provide a contra-cyclical stimulus via plan expenditure, the government has decided to seek authorisation for additional plan expenditure of up to Rs 20,000 crore in the current year," the statement said, adding the total spending programme in the four months ending March was expected to be Rs 3,00,000 crore.
As part of efforts to boost the housing sector, the public sector banks would shortly announce a package for home loan borrowers in two categories -- up to Rs 5 lakh and between Rs 5-20 lakh, the statement said, adding that additional measures would be taken, as necessary, to promote an accelerated growth trajectory.
As a special gesture for the automobile sector, government departments would be allowed to take up replacement of vehicles within the allowed budget.
Attaching special significance to infrastructure development, the government authorised India Infrastructure Finance Co (IIFCL) to raise Rs 10,000 crore through tax- free bonds by March 2009 and said it would be permitted to raise further resources.
"In particular, these initiatives would support a PPP (Public-Private Partnership) programme of Rs 1,00,000 crore in the highways sector," it said.
Paying special attention to exports, the government decided to provide an interest subvention of two per cent up to March 2009 for pre and post-shipment export credit for labour-intensive exports like textiles, leather, marine products and SME sector. The concession is subject to a minimum rate of interest of seven per cent per annum.
Besides, it would provide an additional Rs 1,100 crore for full refund of terminal excise duty/CST and another Rs 350 crore for export incentive schemes and a back-up guarantee of Rs 350 crore to ECGC (Export Credit Guarantee Corporation) for providing guarantee for exports to difficult markets and products.
To boost collateral free lending to micro and small enterprises that are facing a credit crunch, the government doubled the current guarantee cover for loans to up to Rs 1 crore from the existing limit of Rs 50 lakh.
Besides, the lock in period for loans covered under the existing credit guarantee scheme will be reduced from 24 to 18 months, to encourage banks to cover more loans under the guarantee scheme.
These announcements for the MSE sector comes a day after RBI announced a refinance facility of Rs 7,000 crore for Small Industries Development Bank of India to facilitate the flow of credit to such industries.
As part of the stimulus package, textile sector, the largest provider of employment, would get an additional Rs 1,400 crore towards the entire backlog of Technology Upgradation Fund.
The statement also said that all items of handicrafts will be included under Vishesh Krishi and Gram Udyog Yojana.
Among other initiatives, the government has decided to completely lift import duty on Naphtha for use in the power sector while export duty on iron ore fines will be eliminated.
Friday, December 5, 2008
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
Nifty 3rd Dec 2008
These are the Nifty futures charts. The first chart is the Daily chart. We can see that there was a rising wedge from where there was a breakdown. The target which we get from this is 2500 and below.
The second chart is the hourly chart. Here we see a rising channel. Any rise near 2738, 2781 will see good amount of selling pressure . So, trade accordingly and follow the trend!!
REGARDS
Nifty Trend Team
NIFTY VIEW FOR DEC 2nd
In last two posts we were mentioning that 2868 levels will be hard for nifty to cross.
Last post mentioned 2834 as resistance and nifty spot made 2833 high .
NIFTY now is has triangle support at 2630-40 but seeing global clues it can break and open below it .
Dow last day seen 8% fall as it has Rising wedge and breaking wedges always sees huge fall .
SUPPORT FOR NIFTY : 2630, 2580, 2548 most strong support that should not be broken is 2518.
ALL INTRADAY AND MARKET VIEW WILL BE MADE AVAILABLE DURING MARKET TIME .
Regards
NIFTY TRENDTEAM
Last post mentioned 2834 as resistance and nifty spot made 2833 high .
NIFTY now is has triangle support at 2630-40 but seeing global clues it can break and open below it .
Dow last day seen 8% fall as it has Rising wedge and breaking wedges always sees huge fall .
SUPPORT FOR NIFTY : 2630, 2580, 2548 most strong support that should not be broken is 2518.
ALL INTRADAY AND MARKET VIEW WILL BE MADE AVAILABLE DURING MARKET TIME .
Regards
NIFTY TRENDTEAM
Sunday, November 30, 2008
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Thursday, November 20, 2008
NIFTY VIEW FOR 20TH NOV
AFTER GIVING OUR VIEW TO BOOK PROFIT AT 3100 LEVELS AND WAIT TO ENTER LOWER NIFTY HAS FALLEN CONSIDERABLY NEARLY 600 POINT FALL .
WE FEEL 2480-2530 HAS TO HOLD . IF THESE LEVEL ARE BREACHED ON CLOSING BASIS BIG PAIN CAN COME . BUT WE FEEL WE WILL HOLD HERE .
REGARDS
NIFTY TREND TEAM
Thursday, November 6, 2008
Nifty 7th Nov 2008
This is the nifty daily chart. As told on 5th Nov, we can see that Market corrected corresponding to the CCI resistance line and cci hooked. Now Nifty supports exist at 2780 and 2675. If it breaks 2600 then we can expect to retest the previous lows. So keep a watch on the levels.
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Nifty update 5th NOV
This is a Nifty update on the chart given on 31st OCT. We see that the market has gone up and we see Market can go first to 3230. There is a CCI trendline resistance. Only on breaking that will we see higher levels and touch the 34 EMA. Will US Presidential Elections also bring cheers to bulls in India???
haha
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Ranbaxy 5th Nov 2008
This is a daily chart of Ranbaxy in futures. There is a falling wedge in the chart. If it closes above 212 then can see a good upmove upto 270 in a few days. Always keep a SL while doing positional trades.
NIFTY VIEW 4.11.08
ON OUR LAST POST ON USR INR WE SHOWED CHARTS RUPEE AS RISING WEDGE WHICH SUPPORTED OUR VIEW FOR SHORT TERM RALLY OF EQUITY MARKET . NOW WE ARE IN CONGESTION ZONE THOSE WHO HAD ENTERED AT LOWER LEVELS SHOULD THINK BOOK ONCE AND AGAIN ENTER LOWER LEVELS . WE FEEL THAT 2832 LEVELS WILL SOON BE TESTED .
REGARDS
NIFTY TREND TEAM
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Nifty outlook for 31st Oct 2008
This is a EOD chart of Nifty. Nifty gave a good bounce this week. CCI has a bullish Mittens Ghost in both 14 CCI and 50 CCI. If Nifty breaks 2800 on upside, we can see 3000.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
FUNDS OUTFLOWS GETTING REDUCED ?
From this chart , we see that there is a rising wedge(bearish formation). It can correct to Rs 47. Is this indicating a fall in fund outflow from India(stock market)?
Sunday, October 26, 2008
GOLD WORTH BUYING ?
DIWALI NEAR ALL WANT TO BUY GOLD . WE SUGGEST BE OUT FROM THIS SEEING GLOBAL TURMOIL. GOLD CREATING EXPANDING TRIANGLE ANY BREAK OF 10800 WILL MAKE IT FALL TO 9200 -8800 LEVELS VERY FAST .SHORTERS WATCH 10800 LEVELS IN COMING DAYS .
REGARDS
NIFTYTREND TEAM
Friday, October 24, 2008
Monday, October 20, 2008
Nifty for 21st Oct 2008
This is a daily Nifty chart. We can see that the Elder Force index(first upper panel) and the bear index(second panel orange bars) are showing a positive divergence with respect to price. Today there is a doji candle formation. Nifty looks good to go to 3387 once 3236 is broken. The support exists at 3050.
Friday, October 17, 2008
NIFTY VIEW 17.10.2008
Yesterday we bounced from 3100 and closed above 3225 on closing basis which is positive sign. But still we have huge resistance near 3392-3415.Till we cross that we will be neutral to the market.One can accumulate high dividend yielding stocks like tisco , idfc ,sci on every decline .
regards
nifty trends team
regards
nifty trends team
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Nifty outlook for 16th Oct
As seen from daily chart. Nifty is at lower end of the channel. If Nifty break 3225 then we are headed for 3000 and 2800 levels.
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Nifty 14th Oct
As mentioned in weekly Newsletter, Nifty has moved up. RSI which is in down channel took support of the lower trendline. Now the upward targets expected is 4800(which was an earlier support) and even 4200 can be achieved if there is some positive newsflow.As always trade with SL
Monday, October 13, 2008
NIFTY VIEW 13th october
http://rapidshare.com/files/153465853/Niftytrends13oct.pdf.html
PLEASE COPY THE ABOVE LINK IN TO YOUR BROWSER TO FIND OUR MARKET ANALYSIS
REGARDS
NIFTYTREND TEAM
PLEASE COPY THE ABOVE LINK IN TO YOUR BROWSER TO FIND OUR MARKET ANALYSIS
REGARDS
NIFTYTREND TEAM
Friday, October 10, 2008
GAPS GAPS ALL AROUND GAP
WE HAVE CREATED 3 GAPS IN NIFTY AND NEITHER OF THEM GOT FILLED .
DOW WE HAVE PREDICTED IN OUR WORLD MARKET STUDY WILL FALL .NOW WATCH FOR 8275 FOR DOW IF THIS HOLD WE WILL SEE SOME SHARP PULL BACK OTHER WISE DOW GOING FOR ANOTHER 1000 POINT FALL.
TODAY WILL BE ACTION FULL DAY AS INFY RESULT AWAITED ALONG WITH IIP NUMBER AND INFLATION .
REGARDS
NIFTY TRENDS TEAM
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
GOLD DIWALI GIFT WORTH ?
GOLD MAKING BULLISG FLAG AND ONE CAN BUY GOLD ABOVE 13500 FOR TARGET OF 14000+
REGARDS
NIFTYTREND TEAM
Nifty 8th oct 2008
This is a hourly Nifty chart. We have already seen Nifty touch nearly 3500 as expected. Today we saw a very volatile trading session. I have a feeling Nifty can rally from here ...Wait a minute!! Bear market not over yet.. This will be rally in bear market. So let us see what Nifty is telling us. As seen from chart we see that RSI has give a breakout from triangle formation coupled with positive divergence. Macd histogram had given a positive divergence and Macd has given a buy. We feel that Nifty can rally to 3800. There is a gap above that. Nifty can try to fill that gap and touch 4000, may be by this month end(Diwali rally?). Keep a tight stop loss for all trades.
Monday, October 6, 2008
ICICI Bank 6th OCT
This is a daily chart of ICICI Bank. The stock has been very volatile in the recent weeks with heavy volumes being observed. As seen from chart, the stock is currently in a bearish downward channel with supports at 515( which has been broken) and 450. As the stock is coming down with volumes, better to avoid entry into this counter. Only if the stock breaks 515 and stays above it for a couple of days can one think of entering with target of 600. The lower support is at 450.
Nifty 6th OCT 2008
This is a weekly Nifty chart. Nifty is currently in a downward channel(Bearish). Price has tried many times now to break the 34 EMA which is acting as a resistance. As long as price is below that we can see lower levels. RSI is also in a bearish downward channel which indicates that Nifty is headed for 3600-3400 levels shortly.
ANALYSIS OF WORLD MARKET
http://rapidshare.com/files/151216202/weekly_report_4.10.pdf.html
PLEASE COPY THE ABOVE LINK IN TO YOUR BROWSER TO FIND OUR WORLD MARKET ANALYSIS
REGARDS
NIFTYTREND TEAM
PLEASE COPY THE ABOVE LINK IN TO YOUR BROWSER TO FIND OUR WORLD MARKET ANALYSIS
REGARDS
NIFTYTREND TEAM
Friday, October 3, 2008
NIFTY VIEW FOR 3.10.2008
WE HAVE GIVEN LAST WEEK SL FOR BULLS AT 4040.NOW NO NEW BUYS SUGGESTED UNLESS TREND IS CLEAR .MACD HISTOGRAM ALTHOUGH SHOWING POSITIVE DIVERGENCE .BUT WE WILL SUGGEST TO BE CAREFUL WITH LEVERAGE POSITION.
SUPPORTS:3880,3838, 3790,
RESISTANCE : 3992,4024, 4075
REGARDS
NIFTY TREND TEAM
RANBAXY
WE ARE GIVING VALUE BUY FOR TRADERS AND SHORT TERM INVESTORS WITH SL OF 230.RANBAXY HAS FALLEN AFTER DEAL NOW TRADING BELOW FAIR VALUE. SHORT TERM TARGET CAN BE 340-360
Monday, September 29, 2008
NIFTY VIEW 29.09.2008
http://rapidshare.com/files/149267202/NIFTY_TRENDS.pdf.html
please download newsletter by COPYING LINK AND PASTING IN BROWSER
REGARDS
NIFTYTREND TEAM
please download newsletter by COPYING LINK AND PASTING IN BROWSER
REGARDS
NIFTYTREND TEAM
Sunday, September 28, 2008
World financial crisis and its impact-A.K.Prabhakar ANANDRATHI
Are bad times here to stay in 2008?
3more months to end the year and Global financial crisis seeing no end we have September 30, Tuesday, which is the deadline for hedge fund investors to put in requests to get their money back by year's end 90day notice period. The redemption requests have been pouring into hedge funds well ahead of the Sept. 30 deadline. More pressure can be seen in the last few days, hedge funds, control nearly $2 trillion in assets and indication are that 10% of withdrawal can be seen.
http://www.businessweek.com/investing/insights/blog/archives/2008/09/look_out_for_bl.html?campaign_id=rss_null Look Out for Bloody Tuesday
Will the $700billion package save the crisis?
This can be a temporary relief and never a permanent solution many times I get a feeling if U.S has turned into socialist and using good money to buy bad asset to save mismanaged corporate, instead of allowing them to die natural death. I have attached a file which says 1,479 FDIC member banks are at risk of failure with total assets of $2.4 trillion. So we are no way near to solution.
Who next? Wachovia, the sixth-largest U.S. bank by assets, hunts for a merger partner – reports. The bank suffered a record $9.11 billion loss in the second quarter.
Will India face the same problem?
India has a better system of banking and with majority of banks being PSU where Govt hold more than 50% stake we don't have a problem. India is a better regulated market in terms of Banking and NBFC as RBI norms are strict and regular monitoring and stricter NPA norms are followed, recently also RBI warned KOTAKBANK to reduce equity market exposure as it exceeded the limits prescribed.
Special mention:
Ex-RBI Governor Y.V.Reddy was very smart enough to check asset bubble by hiking interest rate and reducing liquidity into the system and it did effect growth but he was strong to say I would compromise growth to control inflation. And warned Govt that real crude prices were not reflected in inflation so first correct that in response to FM statement to cut interest rate. When Fed was cutting rates he stood his way with higher rate and tighter liquidity.
Recap: Market summary for April 7th 2008-A.K.Prabhakar (for use of ANANDRATHI)
Market always discounts bad & good news at faster pace maybe a layman can be laggard, Inflation worry was there for almost 1years and RBI governor refused to bow down to political pressure to cut interest rate when FM wanted to reduce interest rate to improve growth, the same man (FM) now says we compromise growth for inflation. And the mess which has been created by political bosses for there whims and fancy has impacted us now. Good thing about political stupidity is they can't face midterm election now and hard fight over inflation will happen. The art of living lies not in eliminating but in growing with troubles, growth doesn't come without inflation but we need some visionary moves to control inflation and stimulate growth at the same time. If someone were to watch the moves of China they are accumulating oil wealth for long time and the reforms are faster and timely compared with any countries in the world. As Sitaram Yechury pointed out after visiting china, China is putting there hand on left and turning (doing everything) Right'.
Remember: The bigger the boom generated by manipulation of money and credit, the bigger the ultimate bust.
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2008/09/27/economy-in-trouble-no-matter-bailout-outcome
Opinion: Bad times never last, but time is the best cure for any problem maybe by February or March 2009 market can show a bottom and enter a consolidated phase before an up move and I doubt a new high for next 3years but come 2009 good time for stock market starts and wise investment would give best returns.
We in ANANDRATHI help you to become successful investors (Behind every successful investor) ----A.K.Prabhakar
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc
The 158-year-old firm was founded by brothers Henry, Emanuel and Mayer Lehman, Jewish immigrants to the US from Germany, in 1850. Henry set up a general store in Alabama in 1844 and was later joined by his brothers. In 1850 they set up the merchant bank in New York after having made money in railway bonds. Lehman Bros, which till June 2008 had not reported a quarterly loss even once, had earlier survived many an economic crises, like railroad bankruptcies of the 1900s, the Great Depression in the 1930s, and the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management in the 1990s.
--
A.K.Prabhakar
3more months to end the year and Global financial crisis seeing no end we have September 30, Tuesday, which is the deadline for hedge fund investors to put in requests to get their money back by year's end 90day notice period. The redemption requests have been pouring into hedge funds well ahead of the Sept. 30 deadline. More pressure can be seen in the last few days, hedge funds, control nearly $2 trillion in assets and indication are that 10% of withdrawal can be seen.
http://www.businessweek.com/investing/insights/blog/archives/2008/09/look_out_for_bl.html?campaign_id=rss_null Look Out for Bloody Tuesday
Will the $700billion package save the crisis?
This can be a temporary relief and never a permanent solution many times I get a feeling if U.S has turned into socialist and using good money to buy bad asset to save mismanaged corporate, instead of allowing them to die natural death. I have attached a file which says 1,479 FDIC member banks are at risk of failure with total assets of $2.4 trillion. So we are no way near to solution.
Who next? Wachovia, the sixth-largest U.S. bank by assets, hunts for a merger partner – reports. The bank suffered a record $9.11 billion loss in the second quarter.
Will India face the same problem?
India has a better system of banking and with majority of banks being PSU where Govt hold more than 50% stake we don't have a problem. India is a better regulated market in terms of Banking and NBFC as RBI norms are strict and regular monitoring and stricter NPA norms are followed, recently also RBI warned KOTAKBANK to reduce equity market exposure as it exceeded the limits prescribed.
Special mention:
Ex-RBI Governor Y.V.Reddy was very smart enough to check asset bubble by hiking interest rate and reducing liquidity into the system and it did effect growth but he was strong to say I would compromise growth to control inflation. And warned Govt that real crude prices were not reflected in inflation so first correct that in response to FM statement to cut interest rate. When Fed was cutting rates he stood his way with higher rate and tighter liquidity.
Recap: Market summary for April 7th 2008-A.K.Prabhakar (for use of ANANDRATHI)
Market always discounts bad & good news at faster pace maybe a layman can be laggard, Inflation worry was there for almost 1years and RBI governor refused to bow down to political pressure to cut interest rate when FM wanted to reduce interest rate to improve growth, the same man (FM) now says we compromise growth for inflation. And the mess which has been created by political bosses for there whims and fancy has impacted us now. Good thing about political stupidity is they can't face midterm election now and hard fight over inflation will happen. The art of living lies not in eliminating but in growing with troubles, growth doesn't come without inflation but we need some visionary moves to control inflation and stimulate growth at the same time. If someone were to watch the moves of China they are accumulating oil wealth for long time and the reforms are faster and timely compared with any countries in the world. As Sitaram Yechury pointed out after visiting china, China is putting there hand on left and turning (doing everything) Right'.
Remember: The bigger the boom generated by manipulation of money and credit, the bigger the ultimate bust.
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2008/09/27/economy-in-trouble-no-matter-bailout-outcome
Opinion: Bad times never last, but time is the best cure for any problem maybe by February or March 2009 market can show a bottom and enter a consolidated phase before an up move and I doubt a new high for next 3years but come 2009 good time for stock market starts and wise investment would give best returns.
We in ANANDRATHI help you to become successful investors (Behind every successful investor) ----A.K.Prabhakar
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc
The 158-year-old firm was founded by brothers Henry, Emanuel and Mayer Lehman, Jewish immigrants to the US from Germany, in 1850. Henry set up a general store in Alabama in 1844 and was later joined by his brothers. In 1850 they set up the merchant bank in New York after having made money in railway bonds. Lehman Bros, which till June 2008 had not reported a quarterly loss even once, had earlier survived many an economic crises, like railroad bankruptcies of the 1900s, the Great Depression in the 1930s, and the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management in the 1990s.
--
A.K.Prabhakar
Avoid Spreading Rumours!!
Read this article,
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080928/as_hong_kong_bank_rumors_arrest.html
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080928/as_hong_kong_bank_rumors_arrest.html
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
NIFTY VIEW 24TH SEPT
EXPIRY NEAR !!! NUCLEAR DEAL PRESENTED BEFORE CONGRESS !!! US BAIL OUT PLANS COMES FOR DISCUSSION!!! NEXT WHERE ARE WE HEADING ???
No change in view as shown in charts earlier .Market resisting from breakout from upper side as many news are awaited to be factored .Yesterday nifty closed at support and also daddy of market RIL . If u are bull use dips to buy with strict sl of 4040.
If u are bear don't try to short market here wait for rise .
NIFTY SUPPORTS:: 4095 4040 3980.
NIFTY RESISTANCE ::4183, 4245 4305
STOCKS TO WATCH :: NTPC ,RIL
INVESTORS can add NTPC at every fall with sl 167 for target of 192 204 220.
RIL dips can be bought for trading with sl of 1940.
HAVE A GREAT TRADING DAY AHEAD
REGARDS
NIFTYTRENDS TEAM
No change in view as shown in charts earlier .Market resisting from breakout from upper side as many news are awaited to be factored .Yesterday nifty closed at support and also daddy of market RIL . If u are bull use dips to buy with strict sl of 4040.
If u are bear don't try to short market here wait for rise .
NIFTY SUPPORTS:: 4095 4040 3980.
NIFTY RESISTANCE ::4183, 4245 4305
STOCKS TO WATCH :: NTPC ,RIL
INVESTORS can add NTPC at every fall with sl 167 for target of 192 204 220.
RIL dips can be bought for trading with sl of 1940.
HAVE A GREAT TRADING DAY AHEAD
REGARDS
NIFTYTRENDS TEAM
Ranbaxy 23-sep 2008
This is a weekly chart of Ranbaxy. As can be seen from chart, it had shown a low of 300 in the previous fall. The stock has been in news lately(negative for the stock). The stock is now coming to oversold regions but I would personally avoid the stock and watch if it is making a bottom formation before entering.
USD INR - A study
This is an attempt to study the USD-INR chart. As can be seen from chart, it made a high last week near to 47 Rs to a dollar. From there it has fallen to around 45 levels. The chart indicates that the support exists around 44 to 44.5 levels. As from chart some of the indicators were showing bearish divergences before the fall.
Monday, September 22, 2008
Nifty hourly chart as on 22 sept 2008
This is a hourly Nifty futures chart. Today everybody expected a gap up but Market has its own mind. Nifty fut could not sustain at higher levels. As told earlier from EOD charts it didnot cross 4300 in futures.If you observe the chart there is a gap in NF between 4100 to 4140 levels. Will Nifty go down to fill that gap?? As of now the supports are 4182 and 4100 levels.
WEEKLY NEWSLETTER 22.09
http://rapidshare.com/files/147306404/newletter_weekly_22.09.pdf.html
REGARDS
NIFTYTREDS TEAM
REGARDS
NIFTYTREDS TEAM
Thursday, September 18, 2008
Nifty 18th september 2008
Today was a truely roller Coaster day!! All were expecting Lower circuit but as told early Nifty took support near 3800 and after that there was huge short covering. Market by close was in positive, a swing of 300 points in Nifty. Volumes in Nifty futures was more than 5 crores which is seen after many days.
Now outlook from here. As can be seen from chart, Nifty has touched the 34 EMA which i call the magnet, Price cannot remain far away from it for long!! From the retracement levels we see that Nifty can go near 4200 and then 4300. Chance is there of it again testing 3800. Inflation has again moved up which is a major concern as of now.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
ICICI Bank- Reasons for fall
This is a daily chart of ICICI. As can be seen from the vols, massive trading happened. There was rumour of ICICI having problems. Also heard was Lehman selling its holdings in the bank.
Let us see by Technical Analysis. Two days back there was a Head and shoulder pattern and volumes were increasing. So the insiders knew about Lehman troubles and had started selling. As soon as the neckline broke, it fell.
WHAT NOW- We feel that ICICI Bank is a good bet from hereon. One can buy around 500for a reasonable upside. Ofcourse, this is for the longer term. Seeing market conditions is advised before entering this stock.
Nifty outlook 17th Sep 2008
Fed does not cut Interest rates. AIG bailed out by FED and takes a stake in the company. Our Nifty outlook remains the same. 3800 can still come in Nifty. 4200 is the resistance.
Monday, September 15, 2008
Nifty Daily chart as on 16th September
This is daily chart of Nifty. Here we can see that there was breakdown from neckline from the famous Head and shoulder pattern. we can see 3800 levels in Nifty.
Sunday, September 14, 2008
Nifty outlook for 15th september 2008
We have uploaded the outlook for the coming week in rapidshares. Kindly download it from the link given below.
http://rapidshare.com/files/145252122/NEWS_LETTER_15.09.2009.pdf.html
http://rapidshare.com/files/145252122/NEWS_LETTER_15.09.2009.pdf.html
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