Nifty hourly for 1 Feb 2011

Nifty took support near the lower end of the downward channel. The spot has formed a higher bottom which is a good sign. The oscillators like RSI and Stochastics have started moving up. Stochastic is moving up from oversold regions. On the upside Nifty can face resistance around 5600 to 5650 levels.

Nifty outlook for 31 Jan 2011

This is the hourly chart of Nifty futures. The last hour on friday produced a bullish engulfing candle. The stochastic is oversold and trying to move up. So, a temporary bounce to 5600-5640 can be expected which happens to be a fibonacci level and also has a trendline. Trades should be done with stop losses as markets have been very volatile.

Nifty Trend ffrom 1995

As the blog suggests, let us analyse the trends in Index(Nifty) from 1995. We are using a trend cycle oscillator (Schauff Oscillator). More about it can be found here(click here)

The vertical lines show the change in trend as given by this oscillator. Only once it has failed (to predict a big change). But it has given very good signals of a trend change. The bad news is that it has given a trend change this month. So we have to see how low the market goes.

Nifty 27 Jan 2011- Where is it heading?

Today we saw Nifty coming below its 200 DMA and closing near the days lows. Where is it headed. The oscillators indicate oversold but in a trending market they generally dont work. The next support(wish) is 5550 and then we head down to 5400 area. This is now a budget month. We should just follow the trend and trade accordingly. Budget stocks like railway and fertilizers may see some action in the coming days.

Accumulate good stocks like ITC, HUL, Hindalco at dips for a medium to long term investment.

Nifty outlook for 27 Jan

RBI rate hike was on expected lines. But Nifty could not sustain above 5775 for long and fell below 5700 levels. As it is expiry day for Jan series, better to keep light positions and if long in nifty maintain the stop loss of supports given earlier(week outlook).

Larsen and Toubro recommended gave 2 percent return in one trading session. It hit our first target of 1700.
It is also our investment pick.

Chambal Fert- A budget stock

This is a daily chart of Chambal Fertilizer. The price has bounced from the 200 EMA which is around 74. A safe buy will be around 77 with stop loss of 74for target of 83 and 85. Fertilizer stocks show movement near budget. So, it is a positional buy and hold.

Outlook for 25 Jan 2011

This is the hourly Nifty chart.The important level is 5760 which has not been broken on the upside. Above that we can see a good move in Nifty to 5850. Tomorrow being RBI credit Policy, trades in Nifty futures should be done with stop loss.

We had recommended Larsen and Toubro as a good buy.

Let us see the hourly chart of Larsen and Toubro futures.



There has been good accumulation in this scrip and today had higher than average volumes. A break above 1680 will give a target of 1700 and 1800.

NIfty outlook for the week

The past week has been a week of consolitation for the markets. We saw Nifty moving in a range. The support is around 5620-5640 and resistance is at 5775 and 5850 levels. Maximum calls have been written around 6000 to 6200 levels and puts below 5600. This is an expiry week and also a shortened week. RBI policy is on the 25th which has to be watched out. Last week we saw many of the smaller banks and private banks seeing short covering and hence we saw a rise in Bank Nifty.

We feel that FMCG and metals are still looking strong and can be bought at dips. HUL and Hindalco are good stocks to buy. Hindalco has a strong support around 220 levels. HUL can be accumulated at all dips as it is in a weekly ascending channel.

Jan 21 intraday levels

Yesterday we say NF rallying up but it found resistance around 5740-50 area. This also happened to be the 200 EMA in 15 min Time frame. This area is showing resistance in daily time frame too. Important level on the upside is this area. Downside support exists around 5620 and 5640. All are futures levels.
Happy Trading!!

Larsen and Toubro Analysis

Let us first look at the daily chart. Larsen has fallen fast from the highs. We see that it is near the support region. RSI is in oversold region. We need to get some confirmation from the indicators of a pullback. The first target is around 1700and 1850 levels.

Now let us look at the weekly charts.

We see that the price has touched the 100 EMA which also happens to be a trendline and a fibonacci level. The other indicators like RSI are in oversold territory. A pullback can be expected(one day of the week is still left). The target is around 1840.

India economically Boom or Turning Doom with Inflation

Onions !!! Petrol !!!! Beer!!!! what you would like to have this New year all at same cost @ Rs 60 in Delhi . Is this price rationalistion going according to Govt ?

Nifty @ 6180 not crossed and inflation fig came since then one fever infected all investors mind where we are going . This fever was at its peak from 7th jan to 12 th jan where fall seem have no stopping .Adding fuel to fire TV analyst litterly robbed all retail invetors creating panic that we are going for 5400 ,4800 Bla Bla !!!!

Lets analyse Fii figures

Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value Nifty bees close
FII 19-Jan-2011 3167.71 3438.09 -270.38
FII 18-Jan-2011 2699.71 2627.17 72.54 581.39
FII 17-Jan-2011 2569.50 2742.50 -173.00 573.52
FII 14-Jan-2011 2020.72 2769.32 -748.60 575.51
FII 13-Jan-2011 3370.21 3619.98 -249.77 584.28
FII 12-Jan-2011 3366.80 3738.30 -371.50 594.89
FII 11-Jan-2011 2726.62 3889.19 -1162.57 578.69
FII 10-Jan-2011 2633.69 3772.47 -1138.78 585.01
FII 07-Jan-2011 2397.19 3437.93 -1040.74 598.97
FII 06-Jan-2011 3274.86 3660.49 -385.63 607.46
FII 05-Jan-2011 3245.55 3485.85 -240.30 614.67
FII 04-Jan-2011 3381.89 2664.13 717.76 617.75
FII 03-Jan-2011 1516.59 1175.62 340.97 621.66

Big fund houses and Big Market gurus started calling investors back to U.S.

US, Europe Better Bets as Inflation Hits: Marc Faber
Source :http://www.cnbc.com/id/41151067

Goldman Sachs warns against investing in India, China

Source : http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/finance/goldman-sachs-warns-against-investing-in-india-china/articleshow/7313455.cms


Do you think that we are in so Bad shape that money will outflow from India ? Comments Welcomed!!!

We technically think that we have discounted many Bad news and consolidating for next move .




We are showing point and fig charts this is same type of analysis that we have done @3700 again @ 5300 .

Charts shows that we are holding and consolidating .

Bulls need to move up and break 5800 . Two close above 5800 we make rocket move till 6100. with good support near 5650 -5550 zone . Any new Bear in this range will be butched badly .


Regards

Niftytrends Team

Nifty at make or break!

This is the daily Nifty chart. Nifty has held 5700 for now and bounced from the Trendline. Nifty is also very near to the 200 EMA. Whether this will be held is a big question. FII selling has come down in the last 2 days. Will there be a technical bounce to 5900 and then a downward journey again?? CCI has not yet confirmed a sell. Traders should trade with tight stop losses and wait for a major move on either side.

CNX IT Daily chart

CNX IT daily chart shows an overbought positions and the candles formation is bearish. There is a bearish Head and Shoulder forming in it. Most of the stocks are also in overbought , the weakest being Wipro.